NHL odds, preview, prediction: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs for 4/3

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Wednesday, April 3, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning are starting to look like a team that could contend for the Cup once again as they are peaking at the right time. The Bolts have now won eight of their past 10 games, with three of those wins coming as underdogs, which they are once again on Wednesday.

A big reason for this recent surge has been the play of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has finally started to return to his old form. Over his past nine starts, Vasilevskiy is 7-1-1 with a commanding .926 SV% and 2.13 GAA.

This success could continue against Toronto, a team that he boasts a career .920 Save % against. It also helps that the Lightning have done a tremendous job at preventing High Danger Scoring Chances, ranking 11th in the league in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.

Offensive production should also not be an issue, considering that the Bolts rank in the top five in goals scored per game, Power Play % and Shooting %.

Toronto Maple Leafs

While Vasilevskiy continues to take care of business for Tampa, the same cannot be said for goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who is projected to get the nod for Toronto. Samsonov has now allowed three or more goals in four of his past five starts and possesses a .892 Save % and 3.06 GAA on the campaign.

This lack of success could continue against the Lightning, a team Samsonov possesses a fade-worthy .833 Save % against in four career starts. It doesn't help Samsonov's cause that he plays behind the Leafs' poor blue line.

Entering this matchup, Toronto ranks 25th in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. With this combination of poor goaltending and defensive play, it is not shocking that it ranks in the bottom half of the league in Goals Allowed per game, Shots on Goal Allowed per game, Penalty Kill % and Penalty Minutes Taken per game.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Betting Pick & Prediction

There are two primary reasons why Toronto is laying -130 on the moneyline: offense and home-ice advantage. However, both teams rank in the top five in goals scored per game, and the Leafs will be without forward Mitchell Marner.

Consequently, that offensive advantage is not only nullified, but I would actually argue that Tampa is the bigger threat without Marner in the lineup. On the other hand, the Lightning possess the clear advantage defensively and in net.

That just leaves home-ice advantage, which gives Toronto an edge. However, I don't think that offsets all of the aforementioned variables, at least not to the extent of catching +115 on the Bolts.

Pick: Lightning ML (+115 at FanDuel | Play to +110)